Towards Maritime Network Transition Scenarios for 2050 in the Ligurian Sea

Centre de recherche sur les Risques et les Crises, Mines Paris – PSL, Sophia Antipolis, France

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Abstract

Maritime transport and port systems are facing major transformations driven by decarbonisation, vessel automation, and the growing digitalisation of navigation and port logistics. These changes are likely to affect shipping routes, service organisation, the expected skillset of workers, and port hierarchies within regional maritime systems. This paper presents a methodological framework to investigate possible maritime network transitions in the Ligurian Sea up to 2050 within the Interreg Marittimo JASON project. The study area is treated as a cross-border navigation system linking the French and Italian Riviera and Monaco, with strong interactions between dense traffic corridors, major and secondary ports, supervision systems, and environmentally sensitive zones such as PELAGOS. We intend to use Automatic Identification System (AIS) trajectories with complementary data on vessel characteristics, port infrastructure, weather and operational hazards, and environmental constraints. On this basis, General Morphological Analysis (GMA) will be used to structure a scenario space and to compare three tentative illustrative transition archetypes for 2050. The proposed framework is intended to specify the data used for the case study, and show how contrasting maritime futures can support the discussion of network evolution, port adaptation, and reskilling needs.