E3S Web Conf.
Volume 17, 20179th Conference on Interdisciplinary Problems in Environmental Protection and Engineering EKO-DOK 2017
|Number of page(s)||7|
|Published online||24 May 2017|
River Flow Prediction for Future Climate Using Long Series of Multi-Site Synthetic Data and MIKE SHE Model
1 Wroclaw University of Environmental and Life Sciences, Department of Mathematics, 50357 Wroclaw, Poland
2 Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - Branch Wroclaw, 51618 Wroclaw, Poland
* Corresponding author: Leszek.Kuchar@gmail.com
A new simulation of daily flow for Kaczawa River, south-west Poland for extra long series of generated meteorological data (comparing to previous research) and selected climate change scenarios are presented. The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios vs. SRES are introduced for simulations. The flow simulation in the river catchment is made using MIKE SHE hydrological model while the multisite data are generated by spatial weather generator SWGEN. Simulations are done for 2040 and 2060 while the simulations for the year 2000 are used as a background. The large number of new simulated series determined by the lead time, three climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 RCP4.5 and RCP6.0), and number of generated years (1000 for each case) is equal to 7000 for a single station. Finally, Pdf function for flow is presented as well probability of exceedance of maximum flow.
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2017
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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