Sensitivity analysis of peak and annual space cooling load at simplified office dynamic building model

School of Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering, Pariser building, Sackville Street, University of Manchester, M13 9PL, UK

^* Corresponding author: vasco.zeferina@manchester.ac.uk

Abstract

The focused investigation of building design is necessary to understand and quantify the implication of different design parameters on their energy performance. The design of future buildings is a major challenge, as current designs may be inappropriate in a future with global warming due to climate change impacts. In addition this understanding is necessary to be able to predict timing and profile of future energy demand, which is crucial for the long-term planning of energy infrastructures – particularly electricity. In this paper, the Morris Elementary Effects method is used as a screening method, to identify the key parameters of the design and operation of office buildings that affect the estimation of space cooling peak load and annual energy demand. Internal heat gains, cooling set-point and ventilation rates are identified as the parameters with larger implications for both annual and peak space cooling demand. In future climate scenarios, the magnitude of change of annual space cooling demand is significantly (around five times) larger than the change in the peak demand. Asides from the potential increase of space cooling demand in future scenarios, the sensitivity of the space cooling demand relative to the change in design parameters is potentially much larger.