E3S Web Conf.
Volume 213, 20202nd International Conference on Applied Chemistry and Industrial Catalysis (ACIC 2020)
|Number of page(s)||4|
|Section||Environmental Chemical Research and Energy-saving Technology Application|
|Published online||01 December 2020|
Forecast of Road Traffic Accidents grounded on Rolling optimization Grey Markov Model
Department of Logistics Engineering, Shandong Jiaotong University, Jinan, Shandong, 250300, China
2 Road Traffic Safety Research Center of the Ministry of Public Security, Beijing, 100000, China
3 School of Architecture and Rail Transit, Xi’an Vocational and Technical College, Xi’an, 710000, China
* Corresponding author’s e-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org
This paper recommends the rolling optimization strategy based on the initial data of road traffic accidents, and builds the rolling optimization-grey Markov dynamic prediction model, which can effectively resolve the matter that the precision of accident forecast is influenced by the time benefit of the predicted data. In order to predict the development tendency of road traffic accidents and further improve the prediction precision of random time series, this paper uses Markov chain theory to probe into the transition law between different states. The case study shows that this measure has good forecast precision and practicability in a certain period of time, and can offer Reference for road traffic accident forecast and traffic safety warning.
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2020
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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