Advancing Residential Energy Retrofit Feasibility Analysis: A Probabilistic Application to Ireland’s Housing Stock

¹ International Renewable & Energy System Integration Research Group (IRESI), School of Business, Maynooth University
² Department of Electronics Engineering, Maynooth University

^* Corresponding author: pietro.desole.2023@mumail.ie
^† Corresponding author: muhammad.waseem@mu.ie, fabiano.pallonetto@mu.ie, amy.fahy@mu.ie

Abstract

Climate change and the energy crisis are complex, global issues without simple solutions. Yet they also present an opportunity to speed the shift toward renewable energy systems. In 2022, the war in Ukraine raised electricity and fuel prices, adding uncertainty for stakeholders considering efficiency measures. In Europe, the residential sector, particularly heating and cooling, accounts for a large share of carbon emissions. Retrofitting homes with more efficient heating systems can lower energy use and improve indoor comfort. However, high upfront costs often limit large scale deployment. This study uses a probabilistic simulation to account for uncertainties in key parameters and presents a range of possible outcomes. It highlights the benefits of retrofits by modelling energy consumption and investment scenarios in Ireland, with and without incentives. A comparison between two types of retrofit with two types of financing show that similar results can be obtained with a minor intervention with much less upfront costs. The main strategy involves replacing non-electric heating and hot water systems with heat pumps, where in one case is supplemented by insulation upgrading, thereby electrifying buildings’ heating load. This reduces fuel types, streamlines energy management, and supports renewable sources like photovoltaics. Ultimately, this approach helps urban areas progress toward sustainable energy communities.