Urban Sprawl and Collective Land Vulnerability in Irrigated Perimeters: A Geospatial and Predictive Modeling Approach Using LCM in Sidi Kacem, Morocco

¹ Department of Geography, Faculty of Letters and Human Sciences, Sais-Fes, Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah University, Morocco
² Department of Geography, Faculty of Letters and Human Sciences, Sais-Fes, Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah University, Morocco
³ Department of Geography, Faculty of Polydisciplinary of Taza, Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah University, Morocco

^* Corresponding author: badr.khallouq@usmba.ac.ma

Abstract

Land management and territorial planning are central challenges for sustainable governance, particularly in irrigated areas under growing urban and agricultural pressures. This study evaluates the projected vulnerability of collective lands in the irrigated perimeter of Sidi Kacem, Morocco, under future urbanization scenarios. Geographic Information Systems (GIS), remote sensing, and the Land Change Modeler (LCM) within TerrSet were applied to simulate urban expansion for the horizons 2040 and 2050. The analysis combines collective farmlands with projected built-up surfaces, producing a vulnerability index expressed as a ratio. Four vulnerability classes were established: very low (0–5%), low (5–15%), moderate (15–30%), and high (>30%). Results indicate a moderate increase in built-up areas, from 1,353 ha in 2022 to 2,123 ha in 2040 and 2,303 ha in 2050, reflecting both development pressures and regulatory controls. By generating vulnerability maps and decision-support tools, this research demonstrates the potential of geospatial technologies to support rural planning, safeguard high-value agricultural lands, and align urban growth with the principles of good land governance and the melkisation reform.