Weather risk prioritization in the carrot supply chain using RapAgRisk: A case study of Mount Lawu Highlands, Indonesia

¹ Doctoral Program in Agricultural Science, 57126, Sebelas Maret University, Surakarta, Indonesia
² Department of Agribusiness, 57125, Sebelas Maret University, Surakarta, Indonesia

^* Corresponding author: nabila_salsabil@student.uns.ac.id

Abstract

Karanganyar Regency is an ideal area for horticultural cultivation, particularly carrot. Carrots from this region hold strong economic potential; however, the production system faces various risks that threaten the sustainability of its supply chain. These risks include extreme weather events, pest and disease outbreaks, market price fluctuations, limited credit access, and weak coordination among supply chain actors.This study aims to identify and prioritize weather related risks that require mitigation across each actor in the carrot supply chain in Karanganyar, as well as to assess the level of vulnerability and adaptive capacity of these actors to climate variability. The research used the Rapid Agricultural Risk Assessment (RapAgRisk) method. Data were collected through in-depth interviews, focus group discussions, and field observations involving four actors: farmers, collectors, wholesalers, and retailers. The results show that extreme weather risks, such as heavy rainfall, unstable temperatures, and shifting planting seasons, represent the highest priority across all stages of the supply chain. The highest risk occurs at the production stage, followed by post-harvest and distribution stages. Farmers are the most vulnerable actors due to the direct impacts of weather on yield and product quality, whereas collectors and wholesalers are more affected by supply uncertainty and price fluctuations.