Estimation and modeling of total suspended solids of Davao River: Basis for sustainable resource management

^2,3 College of Agriculture and Related Sciences, University of Southeastern Philippines, Philippines
^1,4,5,6 College of Engineering, University of Southeastern Philippines, Philippines

^* Corresponding author: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Abstract

Watersheds play a significant part in ecological and hydrological balance; however, natural phenomena and anthropogenic activities continue to threaten this harmony. The quality of the riverine environments can be measured in terms of the water quality parameters such as Total Suspended Solids (TSS). This study aimed to estimate the TSS impacts of TSS by Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) changes of Davao River from 2016 to 2023 and forecast in 2030 and 2050 utilizing Cellular Automata-Artificial Neural Network through QGIS and identify trend using Mann-Kendall Test. Based on the results, the 2030 and 2050 predictive models produced a Kappa coefficient of 0.94 and 0.89, respectively. The 2016 to 2023 LULC percent change revealed that built-up, cultivated and High TSS areas increased to 5.83, 38.18 and 48.23, respectively while forest and shrublands decreased by 12.05 and 11.43, respectively. The study showed increasing trend for 14 water monitoring stations but no trend for stations 3d, 4a, and 10 from 2013 to 2023. Predictions revealed that all stations are above threshold except stations 7, 9 and 10 in 2030, while stations 7 and 9 in 2050. Recommended mitigation includes leveraging Nature-based Solutions with engineering measures, addressing root causes, and better policy.