E3S Web Conf.
Volume 218, 20202020 International Symposium on Energy, Environmental Science and Engineering (ISEESE 2020)
|Number of page(s)||3|
|Section||New Energy Development and Energy Sustainable Development Optimization|
|Published online||11 December 2020|
Medium and Long-term Sales Forecast of Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles (HFCV) Based on System Dynamics and Discrete Selection Model
CATARC (Tianjin) Automotive Information Consulting Co., Ltd., Tianjin, China
a Corresponding author: firstname.lastname@example.org
Developing hydrogen fuel cell vehicle is an important direction for the transformation and upgrading of automobile industry, but its current development is not clear yet. This paper uses a discrete selection model and a system dynamics model to analyze the key factors affecting the sales of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, and analyze the vehicle purchasing behavior of consumers. The medium and long-term sales volume of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is predicted in various typical scenarios. The forecast results show that the government subsidies and changes in the number of hydrogen refueling stations have a great influence on the medium and long-term sales of hydrogen fuel cells. The energy prices and the breakthrough in the core technologies of key components also have a certain influence on future sales.
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2020
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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